The 2016 California Democratic presidential primary was held on June 7 in the U.S. state of California as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.
The Democratic Party's primaries in Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota were held the same day, as were Republican primaries in the same five states. Additionally, the Democratic Party held North Dakota caucuses the same day.
Opinion polling
Poll source Date 1st 2nd OtherCalifornia Secretary of State Primary resultsJune 7, 2016 Hillary Clinton 53.1% Bernie Sanders 46.0% Others0.9%CBS News/YouGov Margin of error: ±5.0% Sample size: 674 May 31-June 3, 2016Hillary Clinton 49%Bernie Sanders47% Others / Undecided 4% American Research Group Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 400 May 31 – June 2, 2016 Hillary Clinton48% Bernie Sanders47% Others / Undecided5%NBC/WSJ/Marist Margin of error: ±4.2% Sample size: 557 May 29–31, 2016Hillary Clinton 49%Bernie Sanders47% Others / Undecided 4%Field Margin of error: ±4.1% Sample size: 571 May 26–31, 2016Hillary Clinton 45%Bernie Sanders43% Others / Undecided 12%USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Margin of error: ± 2.9% Sample size: 1,500 May 19–31, 2016Hillary Clinton49%Bernie Sanders39% Others / Undecided13%SurveyUSA Margin of error: ±% Sample size: 803 May 19–22, 2016Hillary Clinton 57% Bernie Sanders39% Undecided 4%PPIC Margin of error: ±5.7% Sample size: 552 May 13–22, 2016Hillary Clinton 46%Bernie Sanders44% Undecided 10%Hoover Institution State Poll Margin of error: ±3.47% Sample size: 1,700 May 4–16, 2016Hillary Clinton51% Bernie Sanders38%Others / Undecided11%Sextant (D)/Capitol Weekly Margin of error: ±2.3% Sample size: 1,617 April 28-May 1, 2016Hillary Clinton49% Bernie Sanders39%Others / Undecided12%SurveyUSA/KABC/SCNG Margin of error: ± % Sample size: 826April 27–30, 2016Hillary Clinton57% Bernie Sanders38%Others / Undecided6%FOX News Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 623April 18–21, 2016Hillary Clinton48%Bernie Sanders46%Others / Undecided6% CBS News/YouGov Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 1,124 April 13–15, 2016Hillary Clinton52% Bernie Sanders40% Others / Undecided8% Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 3.4% Sample size: 846 April 7–10, 2016Hillary Clinton47%Bernie Sanders41% Others / Undecided12% Field Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 584 March 24 - April 4, 2016Hillary Clinton47% Bernie Sanders41% Others / Undecided12% SurveyUSA Margin of error: ± 3.6% Sample size: 767 March 30 - April 3, 2016Hillary Clinton53% Bernie Sanders39% Others / Undecided8% USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 832 March 16–23, 2016Hillary Clinton47% Bernie Sanders36% Others / Undecided17% PPIC Margin of error: ± 6.2% Sample size: 529 March 6–15, 2016Hillary Clinton48%Bernie Sanders41% Others / Undecided11%Field Poll Margin of error: ± 5.6% Sample Size: 329 January 6, 2016Hillary Clinton 46%Bernie Sanders 35% Martin O'Malley 1% Undecided 18%
Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other Field Poll Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 391 September 17 – October 4, 2015 Hillary Clinton 47% Bernie Sanders 35% Martin O'Malley 1% Jim Webb 1% Lincoln Chafee 0% Other 2% Undecided 14%Hillary Clinton 40% Bernie Sanders 31% Joe Biden 15% Martin O'Malley 1% Lincoln Chafee 0% Jim Webb 1% Other 2% Undecided 12%USC/LA Times Margin of error: ± 3.6% Sample size: ?August 29 – September 8, 2015 Hillary Clinton 42% Bernie Sanders 26% Other/NA 16% Undecided 16% Hillary Clinton 39% Bernie Sanders 23% Joe Biden 11% Other/NA 11% Undecided 16% Field Poll Margin of error: ± 7.0% Sample size: 356 April 23 – May 16, 2015 Hillary Clinton 53% Elizabeth Warren 13% Joe Biden 6% Bernie Sanders 5% Jim Webb 1% Martin O'Malley 0% Lincoln Chafee 0% Undecided/other 22% Emerson College Margin of error: ± ? Sample size: 487 April 2–8, 2015 Hillary Clinton 56% Elizabeth Warren 11% Joe Biden 8% Bernie Sanders 3% Martin O'Malley 2% Jim Webb 1% Andrew Cuomo 0% Other 2% Undecided 17% Field Poll Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 425 January 26 – February 16, 2015 Hillary Clinton 59% Elizabeth Warren 17% Joe Biden 9% Bernie Sanders 6% Jim Webb 2% Others <0.5% Undecided 7%
Results
Sanders won eight Congressional districts, including the Latino-heavy 34th district in Los Angeles, represented by Clinton supporter Rep. Xavier Becerra. In the 28th district the candidates were separated by just 67 votes, which covers the Los Angeles suburbs of Glendale and Burbank, and is represented by Rep. Adam Schiff.
Results by county County Clinton % Sanders %Others%TotalsTurnout (%)Margin% Alameda 164,88951.5% 153,955 48.0%1,5770.5%320,42110,9343.4% Alpine 11344.8% 137 54.4%20.8%25224-9.5% Amador 2,51650.4% 2,386 47.8%881.8%4,9901302.6% Butte 11,76637.0% 19,739 62.0%3151.0%31,8207,973-25.1% Calaveras 2,97149.5% 2,914 48.5%1232.0%6,008570.9% Colusa 83549.3% 809 47.8%482.8%1,692261.5% Contra Costa 103,33356.7% 77,862 42.7%1,0820.6%182,27725,47114.0% Del Norte 1,11940.4% 1,598 57.6%552.0%2,772479-17.3% El Dorado 12,49249.1% 12,620 49.6%3131.2%25,425128-0.5% Fresno 45,43656.0% 34,663 42.7%9981.2%81,09710,77313.3% Glenn 91146.8% 1,003 51.5%341.7%1,94892-4.7% Humboldt 8,13528.7% 19,928 70.4%2400.8%28,30311,793-41.7% Imperial 9,84365.0% 5,111 33.7%1901.3%15,1444,73231.2% Inyo 1,00142.5% 1,313 55.7%441.9%2,358312-13.2% Kern 28,80654.1% 23,374 43.9%1,0542.0%53,2345,43210.2% Kings 4,15057.8% 2,869 39.9%1652.3%7,1841,28117.8% Lake 3,98842.7% 5,195 55.7%1481.6%9,3311,207-12.9% Lassen 81242.6% 1,023 53.7%703.7%1,905211-11.1% Los Angeles 780,01354.4% 639,886 44.6%14,7681.0%1,434,667140,1279.8% Madera 5,80853.1% 4,852 44.4%2792.6%10,9399568.7% Marin 43,28356.4% 33,214 43.3%2600.3%76,75710,06913.1% Mariposa 1,10244.1% 1,355 54.2%441.8%2,501253-10.1% Mendocino 6,04832.8% 12,259 66.5%1190.6%18,4266,211-33.7% Merced 10,83953.0% 9,273 45.3%3391.7%20,4511,5667.7% Modoc 28142.3% 349 52.5%355.3%66568-10.2% Mono 79943.3% 1,038 56.2%100.5%1,847239-12.9% Monterey 29,73052.8% 26,073 46.3%5130.9%56,3163,6576.5% Napa 13,58353.4% 11,682 45.9%1900.7%25,4551,9017.5% Nevada 8,17536.9% 13,827 62.4%1480.7%22,1505,652-25.5% Orange 171,59351.9% 156,235 47.3%2,7670.8%330,59515,3584.6% Placer 25,24954.1% 20,916 44.8%4901.1%46,6554,3339.3% Plumas 1,21144.1% 1,475 53.7%622.3%2,748264-9.6% Riverside 112,52656.1% 85,918 42.8%2,1971.1%200,64126,60813.3% Sacramento 109,89854.6% 89,428 44.4%1,9331.0%201,25920,47010.2% San Benito 4,11254.3% 3,380 44.6%831.1%7,5757329.7% San Bernardino 96,07654.6% 77,706 44.2%2,1941.2%175,97618,37010.4% San Diego 215,65551.6% 199,716 47.7%2,9090.7%418,28015,9393.8% San Francisco 116,35953.6% 99,594 45.9%9610.4%216,91416,7657.7% San Joaquin 38,21256.5% 28,523 42.2%8791.3%67,6149,68914.3% San Luis Obispo21,63746.7% 24,379 52.6%3460.7%46,3622,742-5.9% San Mateo 79,75658.7% 55,367 40.8%7050.5%135,82824,38918.0% Santa Barbara 31,92746.9% 35,717 52.4%4740.7%68,1183,790-5.6% Santa Clara 159,48057.5% 116,193 41.9%1,8400.7%277,51343,28715.6% Santa Cruz 29,52040.5% 42,940 59.0%3770.5%72,83713,420-18.4% Shasta 7,80945.4% 9,026 52.4%3772.2%17,2121,217-7.1% Sierra 22442.5% 297 56.4%61.1%52773-13.9% Siskiyou 2,46638.0% 3,894 60.0%1261.9%6,4861,428-22.0% Solano 34,23155.3% 27,122 43.8%5270.9%61,8807,10911.5% Sonoma 55,59547.3% 61,167 52.0%8030.7%117,5655,572-4.7% Stanislaus 24,35951.2% 22,384 47.1%7981.7%47,5411,9754.2% Sutter 4,02352.7% 3,463 45.4%1461.9%7,6325607.3% Tehama 2,37245.9% 2,655 51.4%1362.6%5,163283-5.5% Trinity 67235.1% 1,211 63.3%311.6%1,914539-28.2% Tulare 13,47254.4% 10,834 43.7%4681.9%24,7742,63810.6% Tuolumne 3,43348.2% 3,592 50.5%911.3%7,116159-2.2% Ventura 60,61551.2% 56,751 47.9%1,0150.9%118,3813,8643.3% Yolo 17,65548.2% 18,761 51.3%1900.5%36,6061,106-3.0% Yuba 2,38845.1% 2,771 52.4%1322.5%5,291383-7.2%Total 2,745,30253.1%2,381,722 46.0% 46,3140.9%5,173,338363,5807.0%
Analysis Clinton won the California primary, after Bernie Sanders had made a very serious play for the state and barnstormed it before election day. Sanders was significantly behind in the overall race by the time California voted (June 7, 2016), and it would have been hard for him to win the nomination by that point unless he persuaded Superdelegates to switch their support to him at the convention. He hoped a California win would assist in that effort. He rallied large numbers of supporters across the state, but in the end his barnstorming did not prevail, with Clinton winning by seven points (more than most polls predicted). She won in all the major cities: Sacramento, San Francisco, San Jose, Fresno, Los Angeles, and San Diego; Sanders did well in the northernmost counties bordering Oregon where he had won the month before. After Sanders' disappointing loss, Rose Kapolczynski, an advisor to Barbara Boxer, described the primary results: "You can have a lot of excitement and a compelling message and inspire people, but if they don’t show up to vote, it doesn’t matter. Sanders did have very impressive rallies all over the state, but were those people turning around and calling their neighbors and taking action to get other people to vote for Sanders?"
For her part, Clinton had campaigned aggressively for the state's diverse electorate, with Spanish, Korean, Vietnamese, Tagalog, and Chinese-language ads being aired by her campaign on the airwaves and on TV to make a play for both Latino and Asian American voters.
Clinton was declared the presumptive winner of the democratic nomination by multiple news outlets on June 6, the night before the California primary. She had previously not had enough delegates, and the declaration that she had clinched the nomination was based on a survey of superdelegates, not on votes. This announcement being made the night before a primary as large as California's was considered controversial, and may or may not have affected voter turnout the next day.
References