2028 Bavarian state election

Elections to the Landtag of Bavaria will be held in 2028.

Electoral system

The Landtag is elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Every voter has two votes, one for a candidate in their local constituency and one for a candidate in their regional district.Artikel 36 Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz Both votes are taken into account in the allocation of seats according to proportional representation. The election law was changed in 2022 to use the Sainte-Laguë method.Gesetz zur Änderung des Landeswahlgesetzes vom 23. Mai 2022 (GVBl. S. 218) §1 Nr. 9 There is no state-wide proportional representation; regional seats are allocated within the seven administrative districts, which are referred to as "constituencies" (Wahlkreise) in the constitution.Artikel 14 (1) Bayerische Verfassung The regional seats are allocated in an open-list fashion, according to votes cast for candidates.

Only parties and electoral groups that win at least 5% of the total votes across Bavaria (sum of first and second votes, meaning party votes and local district contest votes) participate in the allocation of seats. The regional "constituencies" are divided into local "electoral districts" (Stimmkreise),Artikel 5 Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz in each of which one MP is directly elected by getting plurality in the first (only) round.Artikel 43 Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz

The number of local "electoral districts" (91) is about equal to the number of seats in the regional "constituencies" (89). The number of seats may be increased if overhang seats occur. In that event, levelling seats are added in the regional constituency.

Background In the 2023 Bavarian state elections, the CSU emerged once again as the leading party. The Free Voters and AfD saw significant increases in their voter support, securing the second and third positions, respectively. Conversely, the Greens experienced a decline, losing nearly 3 percentage points, which relegated them to the fourth spot. The SPD, despite further vote losses, retained its position as the fifth strongest party. The FDP, with a decrease of 2 percentage points, failed to secure enough votes to re-enter the state parliament. Neither the ÖDP nor the Left Party managed to surpass the five percent threshold required for representation.

Following the election, the coalition between the CSU and the Free Voters was continued, forming the Cabinet Söder III. Opinion polls

Graphical summary

Party polling

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size CSU FW AfD Grüne SPD FDP Linke BP BSW Others Lead Civey 5,000 38 12 20 13 6 2 3 – 3 3 18 Civey 5,000 38 12 20 13 6 2 3 – 3 3 18 Civey 5,000 37 12 19 14 6 2 3 – 3 4 18 Civey 5,000 38 12 19 14 6 2 3 – 3 3 19 Civey 5,000 37 12 19 14 7 2 3 – 3 3 18 Civey 5,000 38 11 19 13 7 2 3 – 3 4 19 Civey 5,000 39 11 17 12 8 2 3 – 3 5 22 GMS 1,003 39 10 18 13 7 2 3 1 2 5 21 Civey 5,000 40 12 18 11 7 2 3 – 1 6 22 Civey 5,000 40 11 18 12 7 2 3 – 1 6 22 Infratest dimap 1,177 39 9 19 13 8 – 3 – – 9 20 GMS 1,006 39 12 19 11 6 2 3 1 2 5 20 Civey 5,000 37 10 21 12 8 2 4 – 2 4 16 GMS 1,005 40 10 19 12 6 2 3 – 2 6 21 Civey 5,000 40 9 20 12 8 1 5 – 2 3 20 Civey 5,000 38 10 20 11 8 2 4 – 2 5 18 GMS 1,017 39 11 19 11 7 2 4 1 2 5 20 Civey 5,000 40 10 20 13 8 1 1 – 2 5 20 Forsa 1,012 37 10 19 15 8 2 5 – 1 3 18 Civey 5,000 41 9 20 13 8 1 1 – 2 5 21 Civey 5,002 37 10 22 12 7 2 1 – 3 6 15 Civey 5,001 39 9 22 12 7 2 1 – 3 5 17 Civey 5,004 39 9 19 12 8 2 2 – 4 5 20 Civey 5,006 39 10 18 12 8 2 2 – 4 4 21 Civey 5,006 41 11 15 13 8 2 2 – 4 5 26 Federal Parliament election – 37.2 4.3 19.0 12.0 11.6 4.2 5.7 0.2 3.1 2.9 18.2 Civey 5,007 41 12 14 14 8 1 1 – 4 5 27 Civey 5,011 43 12 14 14 7 1 1 – 3 5 29 Civey 5,001 42 12 14 12 7 3 1 – 4 5 28 Civey 5,008 44 11 12 11 8 2 1 – 4 7 32 Civey 5,001 42 12 14 11 7 3 1 – – 10 28 INSA 1,000 43 11 18 10 8 – – – 5 5 25 GMS 1,048 42 11 12 10 7 2 1 2 6 7 30 Civey 5,002 42 13 15 12 7 2 1 – – 8 27 Civey 5,002 42 13 14 11 8 3 1 – – 8 28 Forsa 1,036 43 12 13 11 8 2 – – 4 7 30 Civey 5,004 42 13 14 11 8 3 1 – – 8 28 Civey 5,004 41 13 14 13 8 3 1 – – 7 27 European Parliament election 6,324,011 39.7 6.8 12.6 11.8 8.9 3.9 1.4 – 3.8 11.1 27.1 Civey 5,005 41 14 14 13 7 3 1 – – 7 27 GMS 1,023 41 15 11 13 7 2 2 1 3 5 26 Civey 5,002 42 14 13 13 7 3 1 – – 7 28 Civey 5,001 42 14 13 14 7 2 1 – – 7 28 Civey 5,001 40 13 14 14 8 3 1 – – 7 26 GMS 1,018 42 15 13 12 6 2 1 1 3 5 27 Infratest dimap 1,161 40 13 15 13 7 3 – – – 9 25 Civey 5,000 41 13 14 14 8 3 2 – – 5 27 GMS 1,002 41 16 14 13 6 3 1 1 – 5 25 Civey 4,999 41 13 14 14 8 3 2 – – 5 27 Civey 5,001 40 13 13 14 9 3 2 – – 6 26 2023 state election – 37.0 15.8 14.6 14.4 8.4 3.0 1.5 0.9 – 4.2 21.2

References