The 2012 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 presidential election, elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
Incumbent senator Claire McCaskill was unopposed in the Democratic primary, and U.S. Representative Todd Akin won the Republican nomination with a plurality in a close three-way race. McCaskill's campaign purposely elevated Akin's chances in the primary, under the belief he would be the easiest candidate to defeat in the general election, due to his extreme views on social issues and strong religious views.
Years prior, many forecasters had considered McCaskill to be the most vulnerable Democratic senator seeking re-election in 2012, due to her low approval ratings and the state's rightward trend, with most analysts expecting a Republican pick-up. However, this election received considerable media coverage, due to controversial comments made by the eventual Republican nominee, Akin, most notably his claim that women could not get pregnant from rape. This led most analysts to reclassify the race as a "toss-up", and caused many major Republican Party figures to take back their endorsements, demand Akin withdraw from the election, and cut off fundraising.
Throughout most of the fall, the race continued to trend in McCaskill's favor and was reclassified as a likely Democratic hold.
McCaskill handily won a second term, with backlash against Akin from women, particularly suburban white women, being cited as the main reason. This marked the first time where an incumbent senator was reelected to Missouri's Class 1 seat since 1988. As of , this was the last time the Democrats won a U.S. Senate election in Missouri.
Background In 2006, Claire McCaskill was elected with 49.6% of the vote, narrowly defeating Republican incumbent Jim Talent.
Democratic primary Incumbent senator Claire McCaskill ran unopposed in the Democratic primary election.
Candidates
Nominee Claire McCaskill, incumbent U.S. senator
Results
Republican primary The Republican primary election for the United States Senate in Missouri, held on August 7, 2012, was one of the three most anticipated of the summer of 2012. This was due to the projected closeness of the federal races in Missouri in November 2012, and the potential to change the control of the Senate in January 2013. Democrats believed that Todd Akin would be the weakest among the likely challengers for the Senate seat, and ads attacking him as "too conservative" were largely viewed as veiled support for his nomination. In McCaskill's memoir, she revealed that she also influenced the Akin campaign by providing polling information, which some election law experts later felt was a violation of regulations against coordination.
Candidates
Nominee Todd Akin, U.S. representative
Eliminated in primary Jerry Beck John Brunner, businessman Mark Lodes Hector Maldonado Mark Memoly, author and businessman Robert Poole Sarah Steelman, former state treasurer, former state senator and candidate for governor in 2008
Declined Jo Ann Emerson, U.S. representative Sam Graves, U.S. representative Peter Kinder, lieutenant governor (running for reelection) Blaine Luetkemeyer, U.S. representative Ed Martin, attorney (running for Missouri attorney general) Tom Schweich, state auditor Jim Talent, former U.S. senator Ann Wagner, former U.S. Ambassador to Luxembourg and former Missouri Republican Party chairwoman (running for Congress)
Endorsements
Polling Poll source ToddAkin JohnBrunner SarahSteelman UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011 400 ±4.9% 29% 6% 40% 26%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling January 27–29, 2012 574 ±4.1% 23% 18% 32% 28%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling May 24–27, 2012 430 ±4.7% 23% 25% 28% 20%Mason-DixonMason-Dixon July 23–25, 2012 400 ±5.0% 17% 33% 27% 19%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 4–5, 2012 590 ±4.0% 30% 35% 25% 8%
Results
Libertarian primary Jonathan Dine ran unopposed in the Libertarian primary election.
Candidates Jonathan Dine, personal trainer and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010
Results
General election
Candidates Todd Akin (Republican), U.S. representative Jonathan Dine (Libertarian), personal trainer Claire McCaskill (Democratic), incumbent U.S. senator
Debates The first debate was held on September 21 in Columbia, Missouri and was sponsored by the Missouri Press Association. Topics discussed by the three candidates included the Affordable Care Act, the future of the U.S. Postal Service, the rapid rise of college tuition, and Representative Akin's controversial comments on rape.
The second and final debate was held October 18 in St. Louis. It was sponsored by the Clayton Chamber of Commerce and hosted by television station KSDK, public radio station KWMU, and the St. Louis Business Journal.
External links Complete video of debate, September 21, 2012 - C-SPAN Complete video of debate, October 18, 2012 - C-SPAN
Rape and pregnancy controversy
While making remarks on rape and abortion on August 19, 2012, Akin made the claim that female victims of what he described as "legitimate rape" rarely experience pregnancy from rape. In an interview aired on St. Louis television station KTVI-TV, Akin was asked his views on whether women who became pregnant due to rape should have the option of abortion. He replied:
Well you know, people always want to try to make that as one of those things, well how do you, how do you slice this particularly tough sort of ethical question. First of all, from what I understand from doctors, that's really rare. If it's a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down. But let's assume that maybe that didn’t work or something. I think there should be some punishment, but the punishment ought to be on the rapist and not attacking the child.
The comments from Akin almost immediately led to an uproar, with the term "legitimate rape" being taken to imply belief in a view that some kinds of rape are "legitimate", or, alternatively, that victims who do become pregnant from rape are likely to be lying about their claims. His claims about the likelihood of pregnancy resulting from rape were widely seen as being based on long-discredited pseudoscience, with experts seeing the claims as lacking medical validity. Akin was not the first to make such claims, but was perhaps one of the most prominent. While some voices such as Iowa Congressman Steve King supported Akin, senior figures in both parties condemned his remarks and called for him to resign. Akin apologized after making the comment, saying he "misspoke", and he stated he planned to remain in the Senate race. This response was itself attacked by many commentators who saw the initial comments as representative of his long-held views, rather than an accidental gaffe.
The comment was widely characterized as misogynistic and recklessly inaccurate, with many commentators remarking on the use of the words "legitimate rape". Related news articles cited a 1996 article in an obstetrics and gynecology journal, which found that 5% of women who were raped became pregnant, which equaled about 32,000 pregnancies each year in the US alone. Cited in: A separate 2003 article in the journal Human Nature estimated that rapes are twice as likely to result in pregnancies as consensual sex. Cited in: (See also pregnancy from rape.)
The incident was seen as having an impact upon the Republicans' chances of gaining a majority in the U.S. SenateAkin Vows to Stay in Race After "Legitimate Rape" Gaffe, NBC 10 Philadelphia, Scott Ross, August 20, 2012 by making news in the week before the 2012 Republican National Convention and by "shift[ing] the national discussion to divisive social issues that could repel swing voters rather than economic issues that could attract them" to the Republican Party.Akin imbroglio is bad news for Republicans Tom Cohen, CNN updated 3:23 PM EDT, Wed August 22, 2012 Akin, along with other Republican candidates with controversial positions on rape, lost due to backlash from women voters.
Other controversies On October 20, at a fundraiser, Akin compared McCaskill to a dog. After being criticized, Akin's campaign aide wrote on his official Twitter page that if Claire McCaskill "were a dog, she’d be a ‘Bullshitsu.’" The aide later said that he was joking. Akin was caught on tape commenting that "Sen. Claire McCaskill goes to Washington, D.C., to ‘fetch' higher taxes and regulations."
Fundraising Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt Claire McCaskill (D) $10,250,644 $7,689,961 $3,465,846 $0 Todd Akin (R) $2,229,189 $2,229,754 $531,559 $0 Source: Federal Election Commission
Top contributors
Claire McCaskill Contribution Todd Akin Contribution EMILY's List $261,390 Emerson $41,700 Simmons Cooper LLC $83,225 Crawford Group $32,750 Express Scripts $81,358 Edward Jones Investments $23,000 Bryan Cave LLP $79,245 American Pulverizer Co $20,000 Husch Blackwell $70,525 Murray Energy $18,605 Washington University in St. Louis $56,510 Essex Industries $18,000 Hallmark Cards $52,000 General Dynamics $18,000 Boeing $50,500 Washington University in St. Louis $17,000 Crawford Group $47,050 Boeing $15,700 Polsinelli Shughart PC $45,250 Patriot Machine $15,000 Source: OpenSecrets
Top industries
Claire McCaskill Contribution Todd Akin Contribution Lawyers/law firms $1,929,339 Retired $234,936 Retired $626,456 Leadership PACs $126,340 Women's issues $556,681 Health professionals $120,050 Entertainment industry $346,715 Defense contractors $118,900 Financial institutions $344,960 Manufacturing & distributing $95,641 Leadership PACs $335,500 Mining $65,880 Lobbyists $279,883 Automotive $65,790 Real estate $266,844 Republican/Conservative $64,125 Business services $232,175 Electronics manufacturing services $42,350 Health services/HMOs $210,533 Financial institutions $42,250 Source: OpenSecrets
Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 1, 2012 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2012 Rothenberg Political Report November 2, 2012 Real Clear Politics November 5, 2012
Polling